Track committed vs closed across quarters. Spot whether your team sandbaggs, runs optimistic, or has earned the right to be trusted.
| Quarter | Committed | Closed | Accuracy % | Variance $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $800K | $680K | 85.0% | $-120,000 |
| Q2 | $950K | $1.0M | 107.4% | +$70K |
| Q3 | $1.1M | $890K | 80.9% | $-210,000 |
| Q4 | $1.3M | $1.3M | 104.8% | +$60K |
Forecast accuracy is not just a rep accountability metric — it's a leadership signal. How well your team forecasts reveals the health of your qualification process, the quality of your pipeline, and your managers' ability to read deals objectively. The two failure modes are sandbagging (reps consistently under-call then blow past commit — creating distrust with leadership who suspect the rep is holding back) and optimism bias (reps consistently over-call — destroying board confidence and causing CFO friction). Both are fixable, but require different interventions.
Track commit vs. closed for each rep over rolling quarters. A rep at 0.72 average accuracy is optimistic by 28%. A rep at 1.18 is sandbagging by 18%. But variance matters as much as accuracy: a rep who alternates between 0.4 and 1.6 has the same average as one who's at 1.0 every quarter — but the volatile rep is completely unforecastable. Tight variance (±10%) is a sign of strong process. Wide variance (±40%+) is a coaching priority. The manager's job is to use accuracy data to calibrate the team's pipeline multiplier — if your team is historically 0.78 accurate, apply that haircut to every committed number when rolling up the forecast. World-class sales organizations forecast within ±10% of actual closed revenue. Most teams are at ±20–30%.
Within ±10% of actual closed revenue is considered world-class. Most B2B sales teams land between ±20–30%. The goal is not perfection — it's consistency. A team that reliably hits 85% of forecast is more valuable than one that swings between 60% and 120%.
The top causes are: poor deal qualification (deals in forecast that shouldn't be there), lack of mutual action plans (no agreed close date), late-stage discovery (key objections surface after commit), and manager pressure to show optimistic numbers. CRM hygiene is a contributing factor but rarely the root cause.
Sandbagging is when reps deliberately under-commit to protect themselves from missing quota. It's caused by a culture where missing a commit has harsher consequences than blowing past it. Fix it by celebrating commit accuracy as a separate metric from quota attainment — reward reps who call their number and hit it, not just those who exceed it.
At least 4 rolling quarters to see meaningful trends. One quarter is noise. Four quarters reveals consistent bias (sandbagging vs. optimism) and variance patterns. When coaching reps on forecast discipline, show them their own historical accuracy before giving feedback.
Discuss this in #forecast with 194+ revenue operators in the community.